摘要： 应用GM(1,1) 模型对外饰面涂层厚度变化情况进行了预测，用外饰面涂层的厚度变化来反映不同种类涂料耐久性的好坏，在初始模型的基础上引入了二阶弱化算子 D²，使预测结果更加精确，并通过 matlab简化了模型计算，对所建模型进行了残差检验、关联度检验、均方差检验和小误差概率检验，精度均满足要求。结果表明：模型对于单调数列的预测精度高，可以用于外饰面涂层耐久性的预测。

关键词: GM(1,1)模型, 外饰面涂层, 预测, 耐久性

Abstract: Application of GM(1, 1 )model for film thickness changes prediction in the external decorative coatings has been investigated. The film thickness changes of the exteral decorative coating reflect the durability of various coatings system. A second-order weakening operator D² was introduced into the initial model, leading the predictions more accurate. The model calculations were simplified through matlab. The residual test, correlation test, all variance test and the small error probability test were carried out, and indicated the precision could meet the requirements. The results has shown that the model prediction for the monotonous series is highly precized, it can be used to predict the durability of external decorative coatings.

Key words: GM(1, 1)model, exterior decorative coatings, forecast, durabilit